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Free AccessUSD/RUB Holds a Wide Range Ahead of Talks, Market Looks for Dialogue Continuity
- USD/RUB trades -0.03% lower this morning, treading water in the 76.00-77.1812 range as elevated geopolitical uncertainty keeps RUB on the back foot.
- Crude is off -2% this morning, pulling back from $88/bbl, but markets remain mostly bullish given strong backwardation and a tight supply/demand outlook.
- Markets will be looking for signs of continuity in US-Russia talks, with Russia edging closer to collapsing talks entirely on frustration over a lack of progress on its security guarantees against NATO expansion.
- While the West’s written responses are a more decisive pivot point for negotiations, today’s talks could either bring Russia back to the table or push it further away.
- US attempts to draw talks away from Russian security proposals towards Ukraine will likely not go down well with Russia – so scope of the talks is important.
- Neither side seems likely to soften on its red lines, but agreements for more talks could be construed as mildly positive but insufficient to break the current status quo.
- USD/RUB should trade in a wide range (76.5827-77.1812) and remains vulnerable to intraday headline risks.
- Intraday Sup1: 76.2144, Sup2: 76.015, Sup3: 75.5827, Res1: 77.8878, Res2: 77.1812, Res3: 77.5032
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.