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USD/RUB Holds a Wide Range Ahead of Talks, Market Looks for Dialogue Continuity

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.03% lower this morning, treading water in the 76.00-77.1812 range as elevated geopolitical uncertainty keeps RUB on the back foot.
  • Crude is off -2% this morning, pulling back from $88/bbl, but markets remain mostly bullish given strong backwardation and a tight supply/demand outlook.
  • Markets will be looking for signs of continuity in US-Russia talks, with Russia edging closer to collapsing talks entirely on frustration over a lack of progress on its security guarantees against NATO expansion.
  • While the West’s written responses are a more decisive pivot point for negotiations, today’s talks could either bring Russia back to the table or push it further away.
  • US attempts to draw talks away from Russian security proposals towards Ukraine will likely not go down well with Russia – so scope of the talks is important.
  • Neither side seems likely to soften on its red lines, but agreements for more talks could be construed as mildly positive but insufficient to break the current status quo.
  • USD/RUB should trade in a wide range (76.5827-77.1812) and remains vulnerable to intraday headline risks.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.2144, Sup2: 76.015, Sup3: 75.5827, Res1: 77.8878, Res2: 77.1812, Res3: 77.5032
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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