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USD/RUB Hovers Below its 200dma as Markets Ramp Up Dec Rate Hike Expectations

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.27% lower this morning, broadly in line with firmer oil markets.
  • The cross roes +0.73% yesterday, failing to break the 72.50 level yet again, which has proven sticky this week amid weaker global risk sentiment.
  • Comments from Putin reasserting Russia's red lines on Ukraine and operations in the Black Sea were interpreted as being quite aggressive with the English translations ramping up the message somewhat, but failed to cause a meaningful weakening in RUB.
  • The cross is currently capped by its 200dma at 73.52, with the sell-side noting real money RUB interest around the average.
  • With markets now anticipating a tighter stance from the CBR in December (potentially +75-100bp), complimented with +50bp in Early 2022 – this should continue to keep the RUB insulated against excessive weakness vs risks of a stronger USD.
  • 72.50 remains the key support to trigger a move lower towards the 50dma at 71.96.
  • Intraday Sup1: 72.5115, Sup2: 72.2867, Res1: 73.1550, Res2: 73.5033
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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