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Upcoming Lowe Appearance Postponed


Curve Twist Steepens, Bucking The Trend


IRU1 Given


Correction To XM Price In Previous Bullet

  • USD/RUB pops higher at the open, but manages to hold below 73.50.
  • Slightly more pronounced move than was warranted by slightly lower oil prices just off their 9-month highs and a marginal 0.11% uptick in the DXY.
  • No major observable headlines other than increased chatter about Russian hacking
  • Could be markets taking some risk off the table prior to a close CBR meeting today and pre-weekend profit-taking.
  • bias remains towards a hold, but a 25bp cut cannot be fully discounted.
  • RUB FRA 3x6s-Mosprime spreads still showing easing in the pipeline (17.5bp), which markets expect may arise in 1Q21-2Q21 depending on how transitory the short term spike in CPI turns out to be.
  • Hold would reinforce current RUB carry, but may be interpreted as growth negative given rising case numbers and delayed vaccination rollout.
  • Short-term resistance at 7.556-73.6947 & 73.84
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