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Deutsche: Yield Up/Equities Down Episodes Boost USD

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RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.08% lower this morning, tracking early selling pressure on the BBDXY and gains in oil markets.
  • Brent continues to rise towards the 90 handle, marking a new 7yr high as GS reiterates its call for $100/bbl oil.
  • The market remains tight as OPEC+ members struggle to boost production.
  • Headline risks remain high as we await written responses from the West with the situation requiring a tactical approach to RUB while markets err on the side of caution.
  • USD/RUB is pressuring the prior highs at 77.00-77.1812, opening up the possibility of a move towards 78-79.50 should the situation continue to deteriorate.
  • This unwinds a great deal of positive sentiment in RUB assets as spot diverges from solid underlying fundamentals (outside of geopolitical risks).
  • Market focus will be on the Lavrov-Blinken meeting for hopes of a move back to the negotiating table, but it seems hard to imagine a meaningful thawing in relations at this juncture.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.5370, Sup2: 76.2144, Res1: 77.1812, Res2: 77.5032, Res3: 77.7370
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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