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USD/RUB Rises Alongside EM Peers, Eyes Possible Consolidation phase

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.32% higher this morning, broadly in line with tentative risk sentiment across EM following a softer start in APAC.
  • The cross fell -0.56% in yesterday's session, pulling back from 70.00 support (around the 38.2% fib of the Tues-Wed move higher that formed a bullish engulfing candle), but managed to close below 70.50.
  • Oil markets trade slightly firmer this morning as they try to eke out a weekly gain after falling short of the $87/bbl mark on larger than expected inventory builds.
  • Frictions with Ukraine and NATO appear to be on the rise with Moscow sounding becoming more vocal about Ukrainian military pressure in the Donbass – which will need to be monitored going forward.
  • Beyond this, the focus shifts to data today with unemployment, retail sales, real wages, construction and cargo shipments metrics due this afternoon.
  • From here, we may see USD/RUB enter a consolidation pattern within the 71.50-69.50 range in the lead-up to the next CBR, but high energy price and expectations for tight policy should keep RUB supported in the near-to-medium term.
  • Intraday Sup1: 70.0775, Sup2: 69.8305, Res1: 70.7527, Res2: 71.1058
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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