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USD/RUB: Sellers Step in Below 73.00, Markets Eye Higher Weekly CPI

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.22% lower this morning, mostly in line with a slightly weaker BBDXY, while oil markets tread water (-0.18%) in negative territory.
  • The cross rose +0.09% yesterday, showing RUB resilience vs its peers TRY & ZAR which lifted >+0.50%, with sellers stepping in ahead of 73.00 resistance.
  • Oil markets remain subdued this morning, following a larger than expected EIA inventory build – next major support is at $76.13 if price action falls through $77.50.
  • Strategic stability talks will be the primary focus today, with Russia's geopolitical risk premium having rebuilt slightly on US debt sanctions threats last week.
  • No major frictions are expected at this meeting given the focus on nuclear armaments, but discussions of the human rights-based sanctions will be watched closely if dialogue on the matter emerges.
  • Additionally, threats of counter-tariffs on EU products are likely to boost frictions, should Russia follow through on them.
  • On the covid front, the local situation has taken a turn for the worse, with the Kremlin finally sounding concerned and possibly angling for some restrictive measures in the coming weeks.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have risen +10bp to 52.5bp this morning following yesterday's higher weekly CPI print – as markets remain concerned about CPI continuing to develop above the CBR's forecast, necessitating a more prolonged period of tight policy. Intraday Sup1: 72.5556, Sup2: 72.4238, Res1: 73.0047, Res2: 73.1225
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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