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USD/RUB Spikes +1.7% Higher as US Punishes Alleged Solar Winds Hack & Election Meddling

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens 1.7% higher on signs that the US will still follow through on its threats of sanctions for election meddling and the SolarWinds hack.
  • This was a risk we specifically highlighted yesterday's morning summary that the positive dialogue held in the Putin Biden call did not mitigate these risks – warranting caution in OFZ and RUB assets.
  • USD/RUB has erased all post-phone call RUB optimism, pushing spot back towards 77.00.
  • The recalling of US destroyers from their trip to the Black sea should soothe tensions somewhat going forward in the Ukraine issue, but Russian officials have sworn a response to US measures which is hard to gauge at this juncture.
  • Despite, previous responses never materialising beyond idle threats, this latest raft of measures seems quite substantial and may elicit some reprisal from the Kremlin.
  • In recent weeks the CBR & Russian Govt has said that measures have been put in place to offset the damage of OFZ sanctions similar to prior more acute episodes of sanctions-based volatility – including CBR liquidity to support OFZ markets, reduced foreign debt position <50% and holdings of OFZs <20% and also higher FX reserves.
  • Today's price action will likely determine whether we go higher above 78.00 or if the easing of uncertainty over whether the US will implement sanctions results in a sharp retracement back lower.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.8448, Sup2: 76.4337, Res1: 77.5159 Res2: 78.0406
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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