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USD/RUB Surges as Concerns Over Further Military Expansion Into Ukraine Build

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.63% higher this morning following Putin’s decision to recognise the DPR & LPR – sending peacekeeping forces in to stabilize the situation.
  • Putin held and extended dialogue, explaining the historical significance of Ukraine and its alleged deterioration in the post-soviet environment as it leaned closer to the West as he justified the new actions.
  • He alleged Ukraine now represents a nuclear threat due to NATO expansion and that further expansion was inevitable.
  • The monologue then turned to the West, where Putin slammed the US & NATO for deliberately compressing Russia, highlighting missile threats on Russian cities, and calling for an immediate withdrawal from CEE.
  • The focus is now on how far Putin chooses to extend is recognition, and whether this is a precursor to a more aggravated conflict with troops still stationed in Belarus.
  • Western sanctions are expected to be discussed today, but may only be implemented in a few days. Appetite for the most aggressive SWIFT sanctions has been limited due to the global fallout that will result from it.
  • However, Russian banks, Nord Stream 2, capital markets fundraising and debt sanctions may be options for the West with potential energy sector measures being the more aggressive option.
  • Failure to deliver meaningful sanctions will limit the impact on the RUB, although the West has yet to stipulate how far it will go in this regard.
  • USD/RUB reached 80.9630 this morning (02 Nov 2020 high), with the next notable high at 82.8386 and the all-time high at 85.9563 (21 Jan 2016), but upside could be limited in the event of weaker than expected sanctions, should Russia keep its expansion limited.
  • Intraday Sup1: 78.9952, Sup2: 78.3048, Sup3: 77.4994, Res1: 80.9630, Res2: 81.97, Res3: 82.50
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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