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USD/RUB Tentative Ahead of Putin's Address, Markets Eye Tone on Ukraine Longevity

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades flat to slightly lower at the open with oil markets marginally in the red and the dollar fluctuating around the open.
  • Sabre-rattling between Ukraine, its Western backers and Russia kept USD/RUB biased higher as tensions continue to see no signs of abating.
  • Rising covid cases in India (world's 3rd largest importer) continued to dampen demand-side drivers in oil markets.
  • Oil Analysts note, markets remain well supplied with OPEC+ hikes scheduled over the coming months, providing scope for a deeper correction if the virus situation does not turn a corner.
  • Focus today will be on Putin's State of the Nation Address, where he may discuss key issues such as Western sanctions, Ukraine, inflation and Navalny.
  • Markets will be monitoring his tone regarding responses to sanctions and Russia's continued presence on Ukraine's border for signs of longevity in the conflict.
  • Continued uncertainty in the Ukraine situation should keep RUB positioning light, pending signs of a more concrete de-escalation – which seems far off at this juncture.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.4367, Sup2: 76.3312, Res1: 76.9616, Res2: 77.2794
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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