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USD/RUB Treads Water Above 72.00 as Geopolitical Risks Rise over Ukraine

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.05% lower this morning, mirroring gains in the oil market filtering through from the APAC session.
  • The cross fell -0.50% yesterday, buoyed by upbeat Chinese data, but failed to breach 72.00 support with geopolitical headline risks keeping the cross tentative.
  • Oil markets trade +0.80% higher this morning – having fallen short of testing the 05 Nov lows at $80.26 in yesterday's session. Attention now shifts to API inventory data this afternoon.
  • Geopolitical tensions continue to rise with the US and NATO becoming increasingly vocal about troop movements near Ukraine – pushing Russia's 5Y CDS up over +12bp since Friday towards the 100 handle.
  • The West has threatened sanctions, should Russia make a move on Ukraine but experts on both sides continue to see limited scope for this, with Russia having little to gain from an escalation.
  • This may continue for a few weeks before eventually fizzling out, but is undoubtedly worth monitoring closely.
  • Intraday Sup1: 72.0654, sup2: 71.6864, Res1: 72.6768, Res2: 73.221
  • Russia 5Y CDS


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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