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USD Shrugs Off 10Y Real Yields Near Breakout Levels

US
  • Today’s sell-off in Treasuries has been borne by real yields, with 10Y real climbing +9bbps for a nominal increase of +10.5bps at typing.
  • At 1.805%, real yields are just off the day’s earlier high of 1.815%, stopping just short of cycle highs of 1.826% in July and 1.82% of Oct’22 after which lie highs since 2009.
  • Real yields have climbed almost 25bps just over the week to date, with the speed of the move helping support some of the traction seen in the USD index since mid-July although the longer-term trend in the USD doesn’t reflect the elevated level of real yields. Indeed, the DXY has surprisingly completely faded today’s latest push higher with currently a small decline on the day.
  • Breakevens remain relatively well behaved but sit some 15-20bps higher than sustained lows seen through 1H23.

10Y nominal yield (white), real yield (green), breakeven (yellow) and DXY index (pink)Source: Bloomberg

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