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USD Supported In Holiday Affected Markets


With quite a few markets out today (including Japan and South Korea), along with the US holiday this evening, overall moves have been fairly muted in the Asian FX space. CNH has traded resiliently, remaining within recent ranges, but the USD has firmer elsewhere for the most part. Only Philippines trade figures print tomorrow in terms of the data calendar.

  • USD/CNH spiked to 7.1500 in early trade, but this proved short lived. We are back under 7.1200 now, with the 7.1500 level likely representing resistance in the near term. The fixing bias was more modest compared to late September as well. China equities are weaker, but the housing sub-index has outperformed.
  • USD/INR spike to +82.70 at the open but likely intervention flows curbed these gains. We quickly got back sub 82.40, but we are slowly creeping higher. Cross asset headwinds from weaker equities and onshore bonds are weighing.
  • Spot USD/IDR has added +45 figs and last trades at 15,298 as Asia digests better-than-forecast U.S. jobs report released last Friday. Indonesia's official consumer confidence index eased to 117.2 last month from 124.7 prior. Should we get above Oct 4 cycle high of 15,309, bulls could target the Apr 23, 2020 high of 15,598.
  • Spot USD/PHP trades +0.07 at 58.999, close to the record highs of 59.005. BSP Gov Medalla said after hours Friday that the central bank has been "very active" in the FX market to curb peso volatility. He said monetary policy will be guided by inflation dynamics rather than FX market developments, but Bangko Sentral "will not allow excessive changes in the exchange rate." Philippine monthly trade data will cross the wires tomorrow. Headline trade deficit is expected to have shrunk to $5.800bn in August from $5.930bn prior.
  • Spot USD/THB jumped at the re-open. We last traded at 37.73, +0.90% on last week's closing levels. From a technical standpoint, bulls set their sights on Sep 28 cyclical high of 38.450. Conversely, bears look for a retreat past Oct 6 low of 37.125, followed by the 50-DMA at 36.587.

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