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USD/THB Bucking Weaker USD, Dovish BoT Hold Weighing

THB

USD/THB is tracking higher in the first part of Thursday trade, albeit without breaking out of recent ranges. The pair was last 35.71, around 0.35% weaker in baht terms versus end Wednesday levels (we closed at 35.59 yesterday). Upside targets will focus on recent highs in the 35.80/90 region. A break above these levels could see 36.15 targeted (highs from Nov last year. Earlier Feb lows rest at 35.24.

  • Baht weakness is bucking with the modestly softer USD trend in terms of broader USD indices.
  • Carry over from yesterday's dovish BoT hold (5-2 voted in favor of steady rates, with the previous 8 meetings all being unanimous).
  • Heightened risks of BoT commencing the easing cycle before the Fed risks undermining THB. US-TH 2yr government bond yield differentials sit just below recent highs (+218bps).
  • THB remains the weakest performer in EM Asia YTD, down 4.4%.
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