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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THB
USD/THB sits near 36.14 in recent trade, modestly firmer in baht terms for the session. Earlier lows in the pair were at 36.055. This was fresh lows for October, but we couldn't test the 36.00 figure level. Note as well, the 50-day EMA comes in at 35.99. On the topside, the 20-day EMA is near 36.37.
- Baht is the top performing EM Asia currency in October to date, up nearly 0.80%. Fundamentally, not a lot appears to have changed for the currency, although in early October the NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) got to fresh YTD lows, see the chart below. Hence part of the baht rebound may have reflected some market participants seeing fresh value in the currency.
- Yesterday's trade data also showed a healthy goods surplus. The authorities will be hopeful of a strong seasonal pick up in tourism flows into year end. Data to September showed aggregate arrivals down -13.7%. The trend in arrivals has stagnated since mid year.
- Local equities are higher, but only marginally above recent lows, the SET last near 1410 versus recent lows near 1387.50. Offshore investors remain net sellers of local equities (-$39.9mn so far this month).
- The local data calendar just has FX reserves data on Friday, with IP and trade figures due early next week.
Fig 1: THB NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) Up from Early October Lows
Source: J.P. Morgan/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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