USD/THB Can't Sustain Sub 36.00 Levels, Remains Close To 50-day EMA

USD/THB sits slightly above session lows, last at 36.02. Earlier we got to 35.96. This was above lows from earlier in the week, which came just under 35.90. Current spot levels are very close to the 50-day EMA, with recent breaks below this level unable to be sustained. Below that rests the 100-day near 35.60. On the topside, the 20-day is near 36.25.

• As we noted yesterday, lower highs for USD/THB rebounds is a positive technical backdrop for the baht, but sensitivity to the US Fed outlook, like elsewhere in the region is likely to remain high in the near term.
• The 2yr US-TH government bond yield spread is tracking lower, back to +239bps, but this is comfortably above April/May lows from this year sub +200bps.
• Local equities are recovering from a low base, with the SET back near 1400, +1.40% today, but the baht already sits at stronger levels relative to that implied by the local equity backdrop.
• Portfolio outflows remain modest from local equities, but still evident (-$105.4mn this week to date). Bond outflows were also strong yesterday -$124.4mn.
• The local data calendar has FX reserves data tomorrow, while CPI figures for Oct print next Monday.