USD/THB fell below the 50-dma on an........>

THAILAND: USD/THB fell below the 50-dma on an intraday basis Monday, but closed

above the level as results from the Thai general election trickled through. The

results have been largely interpreted as market-positive as the centre-right

Pheu Thai party lead and will now attempt to form a governing coalition (latest

results indicate the party won 137 out of 350 seats). While Thai equity markets

failed to rally, they fell by a far smaller margin compared to their other SE

Asia counterparts, with Japanese, Indonesian and South Korean markets falling by

2% or more. The more medium-term market reaction will depend far more on the

minutiae of any coalition formed, with discussions taking place from today.

-A number of analysts note that a favourable coalition could see an end to the

foreign selling of Thai assets that plagued the market throughout 2018 (so far

in 2019, foreign investors were net sellers of $350mln of Thai equities), which

could prove THB positive.

-A close below 31.551 will be needed to re-invigorate THB bulls before any test

on the year's lows of 31.070.