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USD/THB YTD Highs Within Sight, Despite Optimism Around Local Political Backdrop

THB

USD/THB has remained on the front foot during today's session, the pair last near 35.57. Yesterday we closed at 35.37, as the market saw some relief with the next PM vote scheduled to go ahead on August 22. Still, firmer USD levels post the onshore spot close have weighed. All key EMAs for USD/THB sit back below 35.00, while YTD highs in late June at 35.71, aren't too far away.

  • Local equities remain close to recent lows, the SET off 0.30% so far today. Offshore investors continue to sell local equities, with month to date outflows now at -$367.9mn. Bond outflows also continue, now at -$938.7mn.
  • Outflow momentum is evident in other EM Asia markets, which will be a headwind for Thailand, whilst the market may await the PM vote outcome next week before turning more constructive on the local political backdrop, particularly given so many false starts on this front in recent weeks. At this stage, Pheu Thai's Srettha Thavisin appears to be only PM candidate.
  • The local data calendar remains light until earlier next week when Q2 GDP prints.
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