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- USD/TRY trades mostly flat around the open, having fully pared yesterday's early spike higher to return below 8.60.
- Although TRY remains one of the top EMFX performers in July owing to high carry, many are expecting the currency's fortunes to sour in the coming months.
- Increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Erdogan in the East med, coupled with rising inflation to erode carry buffers should begin to weigh on TRY.
- Moreover, as premature easing expectations from the CBRT in 4Q21 start to re-enter the mix, these factors may become more pronounced.
- 8.50 remains a key near-term level for TRY to breach and may prove sticky.
- This week, however, the primary driver for USD/TRY remains the FOMC meeting with markets expecting a mostly neutral meeting from the Fed amid heightened Covid uncertainty.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.5419, Sup2: 8.5042, Res1: 8.5808, Res2: 8.6064