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USD/TRY Breaches 200dma; Erdogan Speeches In Focus

  • USD/TRY opens higher after seeing a consolidated push lower in yesterday's session fuelled by $ buying and inflows into Turkish debt starting to pick up steam.
  • Close below the 200dma is a tentatively bearish signal, provided its backed up with continues $ selling.
  • A relatively fast vaccine rollout and improving EU relations also supporting more TRY optimism of late.
  • As usual, headline risks abound from Erdogan speeches with threats of rate cuts being the largest tail risk to CBRT credibility and TRY stability for now.
  • Focus today on the Fed, which is expected to be a relatively quiet meeting, but could see some volatility in the presser if touchpoint topics like tapering are brought up.
  • Risk premia continue to compress: 5Y CDS -2.3% and 1m implied volatility relatively subdued.
  • Intraday Res1: 7.3618, Res2: 7.3735, Res3: 7.3876, Sup1: 7.3109, Sup2: 7.2406
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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