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USD/TRY Breaches 9.20 for a +2.72% Weekly Gain

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.24% higher this morning, with weak sentiment still weighing on TRY, despite more favourable risk conditions filtering through from the APAC session.
  • The cross closed +1.08% higher yesterday, with price action moving above the 9.20 handle in early trading this morning ahead of the CBRT expectations survey.
  • TRY weakness on the back of the CBRT reshuffle largely reflects deteriorating TRY sentiment, unanchored inflation expectations and weak CBRT credibility with markets now leaning towards another rate cut in the -50-100bp range with fewer dissenting MPC members to temper Erdogan's dovish policy ambitions.
  • Additionally, further supporting comments from Cavusoglu and Defense Min Akar seem to show support for expanded military ops against the YPG in Syria which spooked TRY earlier in the week.
  • This morning we also have local budget balance data, but the primary focus will be on US retail sales.
  • USD/TRY continues to hold its upside momentum for a weekly gain on +2.72%, next notable level is 9.2657.
  • Intraday Sup1: 9.1879, Sup2: 9.1310, Res1: 9.2657, Reds2: 9.3103
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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