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CHINA RATES

China Repo Rates Drop Thursday

CHINA PRESS

PBOC to Further Promote Green Finance: Xinhua

CHINA PRESS

Holiday Boom Strengthens China's Confidence: Times

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(M1) Pressures The 50-DMA

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(M1) Directional Triggers Intact

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  • USD/TRY opens slightly higher as spot skirts around the 7.00 handle.
  • As expected, the cross has become choppy around most sell-side 3m targets and needs fresh catalysts to make the next move in either direction.
  • We're currently caught in the 7.12-7.03 range, trading without much direction, which will likely continue until the range is decisively broken on either side.
  • Stalling bond flows also doesn't bode well in the short-term with inflation concerns eroding TRY carry somewhat and denting expectations.
  • Signs that Turkey is willing to engage with the US on S-400s is positive, but it's hard to see them being removed any time soon as the US would like.
  • Also brewing concerns about a fallout with Greece over Cyprus are becoming more apparent.
  • Sup1: 7.03-7.00, Sup2: 6.8889, Res1: 7.1125, Res2: 7.1733