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USD/TRY Eyes All-Time High as Global Risk Sentiment Sours Ahead of US CPI

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.46% higher this morning, with shaky risk sentiment filtering through from the APAC session following a higher than expected PPI print from China.
  • The cross drifted +0.48% higher yesterday, exerting pressure on 9.7459 resistance – which finally gave way this morning.
  • News of F-16 meetings ahead and a vehement stance against F-35s from US officials creates an interesting dynamic that could see Turkey opting to boost bilateral ties with the US by buying F-16s (even though its not the right decision for Turkey) or go for the more advanced military option of Russian SU-35 or 57s.
  • Whichever Erdogan chooses will be a strong indicator of his foreign policy leanings into 2023 elections and possible sanctions risks for Turkey.
  • Additionally, frictions with Turkish airlines and the EU over migrant transportation will need to be monitored for geopolitical implications with the EU.
  • For today, the focus will be on US CPI – expected to tick up to 0.6% m/m & 5.9% y/y with risks to a higher print sparking a greater degree of concern over the inflation trajectory and rates lift-off in 2022.
  • Having taken the next leg higher, USD/TRY remains vulnerable to further upside pressures on global risk-off with the all-time high at 9.85 coming into focus.
  • Intraday Sup1: 9.7121, Sup2: 9.6726, Res1: 9.85, Res2: 9.90
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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