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USD/TRY Eyes CBRT Hold Amid CPI Overshooting Concerns

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY drifts higher at the open in line with a firmer greenback, but remain pegged below 7.00 in the lead-up to today's CBRT.
  • Broad consensus is for a hold at 17% amid sticky upside risks to CPI that are mostly encapsulated in the CBRT's current value function, offsetting the immediate need for more policy tightening.
  • Agbal will continue to reassert a hawkish tilt by guiding towards further tightening to decisively anchor inflation lower.
  • As with any CBRT meeting amid a hiking cycle, off-hand dovish headline risks from Erdogan about cutting rates are an ever present short-term risk to monitor.
  • We'll be monitoring tone regarding whether inflation pressures remain balanced and whether CBRT forecasts see a cyclical peak around 15.8%.
  • Post-decision we may see some mild volatility as 50bp rate hike bets are priced out, but shouldn't be too much of a market-mover, relative to other more pivotal meetings.
  • +50bp surprise will likely see TRY assets pick up some inflows. Rising UST yields keeping EM FX on the back foot and choppy.
  • Sup1: 6.9717, Sup2: 6.9587, Sup3: 6.9049, Res1: 7.0043, Res2: 7.05, Res3: 7.1125
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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