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USD/TRY Eyes Fresh All-Time Highs as CBRT Interventions Proves Ineffective

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.96% higher this morning, teetering around Friday’s highs at 13.87-89.
  • The cross rose +10.71% last week with the CBRT having to intervene twice to defend the 14.00 level in potential clips of $1bn per intervention.
  • However, this is unlikely to deter markets from pushing USD/TRY higher, given the CBRT’s low reserve position and intervention’s historic ineffectiveness in curbing TRY depreciation.
  • Sell-side analysts have upgraded their forecasts ahead of next week’s CBRT with some calling for a 200bp cut at the next meeting followed by a potentially even larger 300bp cut in 1Q21 with Erdogan looking to bring rates closer to single digits.
  • Here, Erdogan looks determined to pursue his lower rates policy, irrespective of market conditions with the next meeting being a key indicator of his intentions.
  • The CHP’s major weekend rally is worth noting, given its substantial turnout with calls growing for early elections as inflation skyrockets.
  • On the data front, we have expected inflation, unemployment, current account and industrial production on the cards this week, alongside US trade balance & inflation.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.682, Sup2: 13.4539, Res1: 13.8898, Res2: 13.9519, Res3: 14.21
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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