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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
- USD/TRY trades +0.19% higher this morning in line with slightly weaker global risk sentiment.
- TRY pared gains vs the USD in the first half of the week after the CBRT statement removed forecasts for a current account surplus in 2022 – pushing price action back above 14.80 in Friday’s session.
- Energy/food prices linked to the Ukraine continue to keep TRY vulnerable so long as the Ukraine crisis continues as sell-side analysts forecast sticky inflation in the 50-70% range for 2022.
- This should be the dominant driver of markets in the near-term as both sides seem some way off a ceasefire agreement.
- Meetings with EU officials prior to the 24 March NATO meeting will also be eyed, alongside potential for a Biden-Erdogan meeting on the side-lines as Turkey pushes to improve relations with the West.
- The verdict for Osman Kavala will also be heard today, which could see more disagreements with the ECHR if he remains imprisoned – which is currently the expectation.
- Focus is on a move back to the prior highs at 15.00 if oil prices continue to rise, although the CBRT & state banks may look to slow price action around this level.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.7634, Sup2: 14.6865, Res1: 14.9265, Res2: 14.9932
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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