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USD/TRY Grinds Higher as Socio-Economic & Policy Headwinds Intensify

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.22% higher this morning as the cross continues to exert pressure on 14.75 resistance.
  • The FOMC minutes reinforce the current US-Turkey policy divergence with the majority of the panel now seeing scope for 1 or more +50bp hikes in 2022, combined with an expedited balance sheet run-off as early as May.
  • Nevertheless, set against a front-leaded fed hiking cycle, the CBRT is showing no signs of caving on its current policy stance, despite surging inflation.
  • A local economist has warned of unsustainable social pressures building in Turkey over pricing dynamics, which will only intensify as CPI is forecasts to remain sticky in the 55-65% range for 2022.
  • As an aside, US relations took a step in the right direction with progress towards the sale of F-16s being a key development.
  • Turkey has remained resolute on keeping their Russian S-400s, however, which are a key hurdle to removing CAATSA sanctions.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.7144, Sup2: 14.6865, Res1: 14.7499, Res2: 14.7811
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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