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BRAZIL

Adviser To Lula Expects 2023 Spending Boost

GBPUSD

Bullish Price Sequence Intact

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Decent Flow In Schatz, Feb TYs

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  • USD/TRY trades +0.53% higher this morning, pulling back from yesterday’s high in early trading.
  • The cross rose +4.22% yesterday, maintaining its bullish momentum as Erdogan stood by his new policy path with the cross now grinding incrementally higher.
  • On the ground, local businesses are starting to really feel the pinch with many import/exporters unable to cover transport costs that have risen above the value of the goods they sell.
  • The crackdown on DEVA’s Gurcan is also a strong message to the opposition not to go through with protests calling for early elections. 3Q GDP data is in focus this morning, expected to print at 7.4% y/y & 3.3% QoQ.
  • Markets will continue to be sensitive to headline risks from Erdogan, Bahceli and opposition as political risks tick higher.
  • Price action is now approaching the 13.00 handle, with 13.1308 & 13.4539 the next notable topside levels.
  • Intraday sup1: 12.6855, Sup2: 12.4788, Res1: 12.9202, Res2: 13.1308