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USD/TRY Holds Its Range As the FOMC Comes Into Focus

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.15% higher this morning, holding within its 13.29-13.66 sideways range.
  • The cross reversed early downside yesterday with broad-based risk off and softer US equities driving a safe haven bid in the greenback – squeezing EM FX across the board.
  • Power issues due to Iranian supply complications are making conditions even more difficult for Turkish industries amid surging inflation. While economic activity remains robust, more protracted outages may start to weigh on activity.
  • Today’s focus will likely be on tomorrow’s Fed, with markets anticipating forward guidance towards a +25bp hike in March.
  • The bar has been set quite high for a hawkish surprise at this meeting so anything short of that signal will likely be construed as relatively dovish.
  • The key focus will be on balance sheet communications and a potentially earlier end to tapering. Meanwhile USD/TRY remains mostly rangebound, although analysts remain bearish on TRY’s medium-term prospects.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.3832, Sup2: 13.3113, Res1: 13.5745, Res2: 13.6614
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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