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USD/TRY Hovers Around 13.50 as Markets Await CBRT Inflation Report

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades -0.17% higher this lower, hovering just shy of the 13.50 mark as rangebound trading continues.
  • After least week’s relatively uneventful CBRT the focus shifts to the first inflation report for 2022 (Thurs).
  • Markets are expecting a sizeable revision higher, with expectations for CPI to surge above 50% in May and end the year around 30-40% y/y.
  • With little forward guidance in last week’s CBRT statement, markets will be looking for potential clues in this report.
  • On the international front, attention will be on the FOMC meeting where Powell may signal the first +25bp hike in March.
  • Markets are expecting roughly 4 hikes in 2022, marking the start of a tightening external environment and a more challenging outlook for Turkish assets – given their deeply negative real yields.
  • USD/TRY remains within the broad 13.20-13.9356 range, with traders more inclined to fade TRY strength with inflation set to surge in the coming months.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.3832, Sup2: 13.2905, Res1: 13.5489, Res2: 13.6614
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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