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USD/TRY Hovers Around 13.50, CBRT to Keep Rates On Hold This Week

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.52% higher this morning, broadly in line with early buying pressure on the BBDXY and upside in UST yields after yesterday’s holiday.
  • The cross continued to drift lower yesterday, making an attempt at 13.3113 support before pulling back above 13.40 towards the close.
  • The CBRT is expected to keep policy unchanged at 14.00% this week, with the focus of attention on phraseology regarding the impending surge in inflation to 50-55% by the end of 2Q22.
  • The CBRT is likely to keep policy on hold until it is forced to make more forceful non-standard measures by rising inflation and potential TRY weakness, or eventually cave to pressure to hike rates.
  • However, Erdogan still remains vehemently against hikes ahead of 2023 elections. The outcome is mostly priced in, meaning the decision itself may be a non-event.
  • Overall, analysts are not convinced the latest raft of measures will deliver TRY stability in the medium to longer term and remain bearish on the currency.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.4262, Sup2: 13.3113, Res1: 13.5745, Res2: 13.6614
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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