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USD/TRY Makes a Push Deeper Into Double Digits as Easy Policy Weighs On Real Yields, Sentiment

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.78%, remaining under pressure as the CBRT approaches.
  • The cross rose +0.75% in yesterday's session, making a consolidated break of the psychological 10.00 handle as TRY sentiment continues to deteriorate.
  • Market expectations have coalesced around at least 100bp in cuts with risks to more at this meeting, given the political nature of the CBRT's current reaction function – as opposed to being market-based.
  • A move deeper into negative real rate territory makes TRY vulnerable in a strong USD environment with central bank credibility at an all-time low – making TRY a magnet for risk-off and general bearish sentiment.
  • Having broken 10.00, we now see the next leg towards 10.50 opening up into year-end – remembering that some analysts have even given 11.00 upside targets on the currency.
  • Intraday Sup1: 10.779, Sup2: 10.0399, Res1: 10.2129, Res2: 10.2867
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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