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USD/TRY Moves Back Above 13.50 as CPI Surges Closer to 50% Y/Y

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.92% higher this morning, having moved back above the 13.50 handle in early trading.
  • Optimism over the latest tweaks to the FX-linked deposit scheme faded yesterday, resulting in further TRY weakness. CPI is the primary focus today - expected to rise to 48% y/y and widen Turkey’s ample negative real yield differential.
  • FinMin Nebati said he expects CPI to peak below 50% in April, contrary to sell-side expectations – but questions of data credibility may add some additional uncertainty in the coming months.
  • Deeper negative real yields should weigh on TRY assets going into a tightening external backdrop of Fed tightening in March, but TRY positioning is currently likely to be very light and most analysts believe the CBRT/state banks will defend the 14.00 level vehemently in the near-term.
  • US PMIs and ISM data will be eyed today on the international front ahead of NFPs tomorrow. Intraday Sup1: 13.5489, Sup2: 13.5087, Res1: 13.682, Res2: 13.749
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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