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TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens marginally higher, in line with an early bid in the greenback.
  • The cross moved lower in yesterday's session, retesting the 8.60 level on broad-based USD weakness.
  • Early indications suggest Cavusoglu's talks with French FM were positive with no major pressure or negative headlines RE Turkey-EU relations.
  • We will continue to monitor this today, however. More pressure on the HDP will likely not go down well with the international community at a time when Turkey is trying to be on best behavior ahead of Biden-Erdogan talks.
  • No real signs of a tough stance on S-400s has been mentioned by US officials yet, or how it views Turkey's move to expel Russian S-400 experts – but this will likely be the key component of talks alongside East-Med tensions.
  • With limited data on the agenda today, USD/TRY will likely continue to track broad risk sentiment.
  • The 8.60-8.50 zone may be sticky in the near-term with buyers keeping the cross supported as markets remain concerned about premature rate cuts, despite lower CPI – owing to high TRY volatility.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.5808, Sup2: 8.5419, Res1: 8.6399, Res2: 8.6927
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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