Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
- USD/TRY is trading near the upper end of its lateral range held since 13 Jan, with light positioning and constant tweaks from officials keeping price action muted and risk flows away from TRY, despite lower implied volatility.
- A widening in negative real yields to roughly -35% following Jan CPI (48.7% y/y), combined with an expanding trade deficit continues to weigh on the currency as the CBRT does everything in its power to avoid hiking rates against a tightening external backdrop.
- FinMin Nebati said today that he does not expect the currency to weaken further, suggesting Turkey may defend the 14.00 level vehemently in the near-term. However, traders remain bearish on TRY with inflation and fiscal-related concerns surrounding Erdogan’s FX-linked deposit scheme.
- A consolidated break above 13.682 resistance may see price action return to the prior highs at 13.9404, where the CBRT/state banks may look to step in.
- Failure to break the level should see the cross remain within its lateral channel in the near-term. However, the medium-term outlook remains notably gloomy.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok