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Bullish Doji Candle


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  • USD/TRY trades -01.12% lower this morning, pulling back from the new all-time high at 13.9529 established yesterday.
  • Comments from Erdogan spooked markets yet again as he pledged lower rates and lower going into the 2023 elections.
  • Recent remarks have fully dispelled any hopes of rate hikes to offset higher inflation, and with the CBRT saying it’s unwilling to sell reserves, there doesn’t appear to be much stopping USD/TRY melting higher.
  • Powell’s comments regarding retiring the phrase ‘transitory’ and guidance towards a faster taper took markets off guard yesterday after Omicron had seen hikes priced out to some degree. This environment makes TRY extremely vulnerable, given negative real yields and expectations for more easing directly into oncoming CPI headwinds.
  • Traders should continue to fade bouts of TRY strength and be sensitive to headline risks from Erdogan & govt officials.
  • US ISM data will also be a key driver of USD-side price action today. Intraday Sup1: 13.1308, Sup2: 12.9204, Res1: 13.6001, Res2: 13.7987