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USD/TRY Surges Above 11.50 as Erdogan Remarks Add Fresh Bullish Catalysts

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +2.73% higher this morning, spooked by comments from Erdogan in support of lower rates and acknowledging that Turkey knows exactly what it's doing with its current policy.
  • TRY has depreciated by over +41% vs the USD since September and continues to deteriorate with supportive comments from Erdogan – leading to many sell-side analysts expecting an emergency rate hike some time in 1H22 or the return of Albayrak-style unconventional policy tools to stabilise the currency.
  • However, you slice it the situation remains concerning with this morning's new high at 11.75 and potential for a move above 12.00 if the CBRT continues to look complacent on the value of the currency.
  • In a firm USD environment TRY & TurkGBs remain acutely vulnerable, and should remain so headed into 2022 if nothing is done to stabilise the currency.
  • US PMI data is on the agenda today, expected to reflect an uptick in both manufacturing and services to 59 – potentially adding to USD upside momentum.
  • Intraday Sup1: 11.5775, Sup2: 11.4852, Res1: 11.7542, Res2: 12.00
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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