Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
- USD/TRY trades flat to slightly lower this morning, having gained some firm downside traction in yesterday's session on the back of broad-based $ selling.
- Yesterday's CBRT came in directly in line with expectations with many analysts pleased about its more cautious sounding phrasing, retaining the rates kept above inflation component and noting
- "the current stance will be maintained until the significant fall in the April inflation report's forecast path (12.2% y/y) has been achieved."
- However, the recognition of a peak in CPI and the changed wording on the impact of tightening "has begun to be observed" was concerning among local analysts, who said the data did not support this on the loan growth front – opening the door to premature cuts.
- While the CBRT has won back some credibility by holding rates, concerns RE premature cuts will remain partially priced into TRY assets.
- Inflation metrics will be monitored closely in the coming month for signs of a cyclical peak and scope for premature easing in 3Q-4Q21.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.2538, Sup2: 8.2046, Res1: 8.3006, Res2: 8.3319