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USD/TRY Tests CBRT Resolve, Making a New Weekly High at 13.9078

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.29% higher this morning, making a new weekly high and testing the CBRT’s resolve its previous intervention price at 13.8898.
  • The cross rose +0.86% yesterday and is currently +1.15% above Friday’s close after a broadly choppy week. 12m inflation expectations reflected sticky inflation at 21.39%, while unemployment made a slight improvement to 11.2% vs 11.5% prior.
  • However, US inflation data will be the primary focus for global markets and USD-Side drivers in today’s session.
  • Going into next week uncertainty will likely keep TRY assets under pressure as analysts anticipate further rate cuts from the CBRT in the 100-200bp range, despite expectations for CPI to rise to 25% in December.
  • Potential USD strength following CPI today could pose difficulties for the CBRT if USD/TRY moves above 14.00 and the bank intervenes to defend the level.
  • Reserves have shown a decent decline in the last few weeks and most analysts believe efforts are futile and will only make it country’s net position more precarious without halting TRY depreciation.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.749, Sup2: 13.682, Res1: 13.9078, Res2: 13.9519
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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