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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TWD
(MNI Australia) USD/TWD sits just under 30.40, fresh lows in the pair back to late Feb. We are below all key EMAs, except for the 200 day, which comes in at 30.375, so very close to current spot levels. The simple 50-day MA is also nearby at 30.405. A break below these levels could open up the low 30.00 region/high 29.00 region, which the pair bottomed out in early Feb.
- TWD is likely to take its cues from local equity market sentiment, see the chart below. The Taiex is around flat so far today, but from a trend standpoint is not too far off multi-month highs. Broader tech equity sentiment is being buoyed by the shift down in terminal rate expectations for major central banks, but the demand side still has a question mark around it, given global growth concerns.
- Yesterday saw $917.8mn in inflows from offshore investors, the strongest daily inflow since end Jan. We still remain at -$3.158bn in net outflows for the past month, so there is scope for further inflow momentum.
- Elsewhere, today's CBC decision is expected to see rates left on hold at 1.75%. With rate differentials with the US generally improving this may not impact TWD in a negative way.
- Geopolitical risks will be the other focus point, with Taiwan President Tsai set to stop over in the US twice, NY 29-30 of March and Los Angeles (April 6-7) as part of a trip to Central America.
Fig 1: TWD/USD & Taiwan Equities (Rolling 1 Month Change)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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