USD/TWD Just Shy Of YTD Highs Amid Equity Outflow Pressures

USD/TWD has pushed higher again today. The pair sits just below session highs, last near 31.36 (earlier highs close to 31.39). The 1 month NDF is close at around 31.34. A break above 31.40 for spot would be fresh YTD highs in the pair and levels not seen since mid November last year. In NEER terms we are already at fresh YTD lows, last near 120.0 in terms of the J.P. Morgan index.

• The tail end of last week saw decent offshore outflows from foreign investors. Friday saw -$979.60mn in net outflows, bringing last week's outflows to -$1.24bn, representing roughly half the outflows seen in July to date.
• Onshore equities are down slightly today, the Taiex back close to the 17000 level.
• On the data front we get June unemployment figures and IP later. The market expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.50%, but IP to be a little weaker at -16.49% y/y (prior was -15.73%). The general trend in export growth has been softer in recent months which should weigh on IP all else equal.