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USD Weakness Offers EM Equities A Better Start for 2022

EMERGING MARKETS
  • While the rise in price volatility (i.e. VIX) has led to a small consolidation in DM equity markets, the USD consolidation has been supporting EM risky assets, which have taken off sharply this month.
  • EM MSCI equities are up nearly 3% since the start of the year, while SP500 is down 1% and European equities are flat.
  • The USD has been showing some signs of weakness in recent weeks after it peaked in the end of November.
  • To the exception of the Swiss Franc, the USD appear to be moderately to significantly ‘overvalued’ according to a range of fair value metrics.
  • The second consecutive miss on NFP last Friday is likely to have been one of the major factors behind this week’s USD consolidation.
  • DXY is approaching its key support at 94.646, which represents the index 100DMA; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 94.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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