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USD/ZAR Breaks 15.00 as Eskom Announces Stage 4 Load-Shedding

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.11% this morning, broadly ignoring early selling pressure on the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +1.55% yesterday to move back above the 15.00 handle on the back of broad-based risk off and a bid USD with ZAR's high-beta nature making it a target.
  • The shift to stage 4 load-shedding ahead of elections was also a ZAR negative factor, reflecting Eskom's acute vulnerability as it faces the worst year of energy security on record.
  • Moreover, the ANC's willingness to talk about coalitions ahead of elections shows the extent of the pressure that the party is facing going into these elections – which may evolve into a more reform focused ANC in the medium to longer term as it looks to fight harder for voter support in the future.
  • Today's focus will be on PPI data as markets parse pricing data ahead of the next SARB where markets are pricing in a chance of a +25bp hike and +41bp over a 3-6m horizon.
  • On the international front, we have the ECB – which is expected to be somewhat of a placeholder meeting ahead of the more decisive meetings towards year-end with Lagarde likely to reiterate the Bank's forward guidance framework.
  • Price action in USD/ZAR has created some very bullish candles on the daily chart, with the 15.21-15.29 zone coming into focus.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.9874, Sup2: 14.9138, Res1: 15.1367, Res2: 15.2080
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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