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USD/ZAR Drops But Overnight Implied Vol Rises Ahead Of SARB Rate Decision

ZAR

USD/ZAR overnight implied volatility has crept higher ahead of the much awaited SARB rate decision, which comes on the heels of an expectation-beating October inflation outturn. Most still expect the central bank to refrain from adjusting its current restrictive monetary policy settings, albeit hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago et al. is widely expected.

  • Spot USD/ZAR ripped through key resistance from Nov 10 high of 18.8057 yesterday, charting a double bottom pattern. The neckline of this bullish formation comes under pressure today, as a weaker greenback adds pressure to the pair.
  • When this is being typed, USD/ZAR trades at 18.7912, some 950 pips below neutral levels. Consolidation below 18.8057 would encourage bears to target Nov 15 low of 18.1117 and the psychologically significant 18.0000 mark.
  • SAGB yield curve runs a tad flatter, with 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 6.74%. The BCOM Index has shed 0.7%, with the precious metals subindex moving 0.5% lower.
  • Familiar themes continue to dominate local news flow, with the DIRCO pondering a parliamentary resolution asking it to sever diplomatic ties with Israel.
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