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USD/ZAR Eyes 14.00 as Analysts Hail New Dawn for Ramaphosa's ANC

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades mostly flat around the open, hovering above the 14.00 handle after Friday's bout of USD weakness post-NFPs.
  • ZAR remains a key bright spot in EM, with strong fundamentals keeping it attractive in bouts of risk-on and dollar weakness.
  • Focus this week remains on local politics with the ANC expected to provide a final announcement on the step aside rule today, with broad expectations for a firm resolution on Magashule to step aside as SG given Ramaphosa's broad support base.
  • Analysts have said this could be the watershed to a new dawn for a reformist ANC as Ramaphosa cements his grip on power and will be less hamstrung in his reform agenda due to factional battles.
  • Although unlikely, there is also the off-chance of Magahsule will be expelled from the ANC given last week's discussions, which would likely expedite the possible RET breakaway.
  • However, this seems a bit ambitious.
  • Focus on manufacturing/mining data this week, followed by US data into the back end of the week.
  • Third wave risks continue to simmer in the background with new variants being detected locally, but cases remain around 2k/day.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.00, Sup2: 13.9326, Res1: 14.0987, Res2: 14.1536
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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