MNI BRIEF: Text of Bank Of Canada Interest-Rate Decision

MNI BRIEF: Text Of BOC Press Conference Opening Statement

BOC CUTS RATE TO 4.5% FROM 4.75%, MORE MAY BE JUSTIFIED

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 24

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY203.9 Bln Via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1358 Weds; -0.98% Y/Y

Services PMI Gains Continue To Diverge From Soft Manufacturing

MNI: US JUN NEW HOME SALES -0.6% TO 0.617M SAAR

MNI: US JUL FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI 49.5 (FCST 51.6); JUN 51.6

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

USD/ZAR: Focus Shifts to SARB as Institutions Diverge over the Start of Normalisation

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.21% at the open as the BBDXY and USD/CNH tick higher at the start of the session.
  • The cross retraced to the 76.4% fib of the weekly range (14.23-14.79) amid unrest-driven volatility as riots gripped KZN and Gauteng – forcing a shift in positive investor sentiment surrounding ZAR.
  • Now that the unrest has eased, Ramaphosa's efforts to manage the clean-up and reassert his dominance within the ANC will become the next major focus in bringing confidence back to SA markets.
  • ZAR still looks somewhat vulnerable at these levels, given expectations for USD strength in the coming weeks.
    * Beyond Unrest developments, the SARB meeting on Thursday will be key in gauging bank's view towards normalisation with many sell-side institutions diverging on the matter.
  • While the broad consensus is for a hold at this meeting, many are speculating about a reactive hike in November as unrest-driven supply-side pressures & fuel price hikes filter through into CPI metrics.
  • This, however, is not our view as Gov Kganyago has consistently reiterated the SARB will look through transitory factors towards medium-term disinflationary factors.
  • 2022/23 average inflation is still seen pegged around the midpoint of the range, and Kganyago will be likely cognisant of denting SA's recovery potential with reactive hikes.
  • CPI data due this week expected to moderate in June & July before ticking higher in August.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.3643, Sup2: 14.2976, Res1: 14.5113, Res2: 14.5753
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.