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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH AFRICA
- USD/ZAR trades +0.15% higher this morning, tracking early upside pressure on the BBDXY.
- The cross fell -0.75% in yesterday's session on the back of better-than-expected china data, but failed to hold below 15.212 support.
- The primary focus remains CPI and the SARB due tomorrow and Thursday with markets split over expectations for a hold or a +25bp hike.
- 1x4 FRA-Jibar spreads currently signal +20bp, having moderated from +25bp on Thursday. Similarly, 3x6 FRA-Jibar spreads have fallen -12.3bp from a peak of +70bp on Thursday to +57.7bp today.
- We see the SARB sticking to its guns with a hold at 3.5%, owing to the fragile recovery, but guiding hawkishly towards higher medium-term inflation forecasts to avoid sounding too dovish.
- This scenario could see ZAR under depreciation pressure as the hikes price themselves out post-meeting.
- For now, the cross remains choppy in the 15.1689-15.3532 range, awaiting a breakout to confirm a more decisive near-term direction.
- Intraday Sup1: 15.1689, Sup2: 15.1089, Res1: 15.3532, Res2: 15.3914
ZAR 1x4 FRA-Jibar Spread
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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