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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH AFRICA
- USD/ZAR trades +0.02% higher this morning, with price action getting choppy around the 15.00 handle and the 200dma at 15.0597.
- The cross closed -0.41% lower w/w as early optimism on Ukraine talks was tempered into the weekend with both sides still far apart on neutrality/territorial demands in negotiations.
- SA’s terms of trade narrowed sharply on plunging metals prices – falling to YTD lows and will likely weigh on ZAR if they remain low against rising oil prices.
- This week’s focus shifts to CPI data with headline expected to rise to 5.8% y/y in Feb, but is not expected to move the SARB to accelerate its tightening cycle just yet.
- Consensus remains for a +25bp hike with the SARB cautious not to pre-emptively hobble growth on an exogenous rise in energy prices. Markets expect hawkish revisions to average CPI for 2022/23 – rising closer to the 6% upper band of the target range.
- Recent ZAR strength has limited FX passthrough to inflation and should temper the need for accelerating the hiking cycle for now, but we cannot fully discount a +50bp step.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.9133, Sup2: 14.8548, Res1: 15.0603, Res2: 15.1431
Citi Terms of Trade
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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