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USD/ZAR Pulls Back from 15.50, Kingmaker Concerns Emerge

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades -0.43% lower this morning, tracking early selling pressure on the BBDXY. The cross rose +1.25%, moving towards the 15.50 handle in thin holiday markets.
  • Focus today remains on polling data with preliminary forecasts showing a decidedly dim picture for the ANC, with support falling below the 50% mark for the first time since 1994.
  • This brings forward the spectre of coalitions and a kingmaker, which in the context of an expanded EFF support base is a concerning dynamic, given its radical economic views on nationalisation of land and the SARB (among others).
  • The vote tallying is expected to run for 2-3 days before a final result, leaving time for frantic coalition-making.
  • Beyond elections, markets will begin to price in the FOMC tomorrow – with a bias building towards a potential hawkish surprise in terms of the Fed's discussion on inflation and rates lift-off.
  • The cross is now running into resistance in the 15.48-15.60 zone and may see gains tempered somewhat, but risks for volatility around the election and FOMC outcome leave scope for near-term volatility.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.3281, Sup2: 15.2131, Res1: 15.4838, Res2: 15.5427
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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