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USD/ZAR Trades Heavy as Third Wave Looms, SARB Seen on Hold Next Week

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR continues to track broad risk sentiment with limited local data/market movers on the agenda – trading lower at the open on a softer Greenback.
  • Third wave concerns starting to creep into the local narrative as Easter approaches, with risks of another hard lockdown likely to have substantial effects on growth.
  • The current rate of vaccinations is fairly alarming if maintained at its current trajectory, which may weigh on ZAR in the coming months.
  • Protests for free education also remain a tail risk to the fiscal consolidation with labour entering the fray – although govt has remained resolute in its communication of insufficient funds, which is good for now.
  • USD/ZAR should track broad global risk sentiment today ahead of the March 25 SARB next week.
  • We see the SARB as likely to hold rates steady, with medium-term inflation factors mostly balanced at the midpoint of the range on muted demand pressures.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.6173, Sup2: 14.5229, Res1: 14.8238. Res2: 14.9078
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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