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Holding Above Recent Lows

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(M2) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

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SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.15% lower this morning, mirroring choppy price action in the BBDXY.
  • China produced mixed data overnight with better than expected GDP, a surprise -10bp PBoC rate cut and softer retail sales – resulting in marginally firmer global risk sentiment.
  • Local focus this week is in Ramaphosa’s response to scathing remarks from Tourism minister Sisulu and how it could impact his second term as ANC resident as internal jockeying begins well ahead of the December elective conference.
  • CPI will be monitored closely ahead of next week’s SARB with headline figures expected to rise closer to the 6% upper threshold of the target range at 5.7% y/y.
  • 1x4 FRA-Jibar3m spreads still stand around +33bp.
  • Mining production and retail sales data are also on the agenda for the week. USD/ZAR continues to hover around its 100dma, with buyers defending the level thus far.
  • Sell-side estimates for ZAR in 2022 are somewhat more bearish, however, expecting USD/ZAR to reach 16.50-17.00 in 2022 as the current account surplus and positive terms of trade fade.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.2963, Sup2: 15.2660, Sup3: 15.2120, Res1: 15.4435, Res2: 15.5230
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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